Israel warns against Iran's attack | Hoplite Group posted on the topic | LinkedIn (2024)

Latest in Ukraine: Battle Over Bakhmut Grinds On in Ukraine - https://lnkd.in/gmimFM5R developments: Russia warns Western alliance they will face 'colossal risks' if they provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, TASS news agency quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko as saying on Saturday. U.S. President Joe Biden told G-7 leaders on Friday that Washington supports joint allied training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters, senior U.S. officials said. The Group of Seven rich nations announced support Saturday for gas investments, calling it a 'temporary' step as they divest from Russian energy. The plan has dismayed climate activists, who say it may hurt climate objectives. The member states of the International Criminal Court expressed deep concern Saturday about Russia's decision to place ICC's prosecutor Karim Khan and several judges on a wanted list. The Kremlin's move came after The Hague-based ICC charged President Vladimir Putin in March with the war crime of illegally deporting children from Ukraine. Ukraine says fighting in Bakhmut continues to rage on, rejecting claims Saturday by Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin that his fighters have occupied the besieged city.In a video on the Telegram messaging app, Prigozhin claimed his forces fully captured the destroyed Ukrainian city. 'Today, at 12 noon, Bakhmut was completely taken,' he said. 'We completely took the whole city, from house to house.'The Wagner chief appeared in combat fatigues in front of a line of fighters holding Russian flags and Wagner banners. In this handout photo taken from video and released by Prigozhin Press Service, May 20, 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group military company holds a Russian national flag in Bakhmut, Ukraine. (Prigozhin Press Service/AP)Responding to Prigozhin's claims, Ukrainian military spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi told Reuters, 'This is not true. Our units are fighting in Bakhmut.'However, Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar called the situation in Bakhmut 'critical,' with the Ukrainian troops maintaining a defense in the southwestern part of the city.'Heavy fighting in Bakhmut. The situation is critical,' she said on Telegram. 'As of now, our defenders control some industrial and infrastructure facilities in the area and the private sector.'Bloodiest battleFor almost 15 months, Bakhmut has been the focus of the longest and bloodiest battle of Russia's war in Ukraine.However, Prigozhin claimed his forces had full control of the city and insisted Wagner fighters would hand over Bakhmut to the regular Russian army by May 25. The Wagner boss also mockingly addressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Joe Biden, who are participating Saturday at the G-7 summit in Japan.'Today, when you see Biden kiss him on the top of his head, say hi to him from me,' he said.British Defense intelligence said Saturday on

Israel strikes the Iran consulate in Syria. Allegedly. Everyone including the US thinks they did it. And Israel did act like it did it - and wanted Iran to know it did it. There were no vehement denial - I mean, if Sydney accused the Mossad of being behind the shopping mall stabbing (this is sarcasm, ok) you can be sure that the Israeli ambo won't take a 'neither confirm or deny' stance.Iran's response was intentionally underwhelming. Otherwise, they are low on stocks or just dumb. Hamas has overwhelmed the Iron Dome - so everyone has a measure of Israel's anti-missile shield up to Oct 7. (Yes, it can be saturated - by over 3000 launches in a short space of time.) Iran fired 200 to 400 at Israel - and allowed Israel 99% interception rate.So let us assume that Iran had intentionally fired less for effect and more as a gesture. Then this paves the way for a de-escalation of Iran-Israel direct tensions. This, de-escalation, suits everyone except Israel - and by Israel, I mean some factions and the current government. The US has signalled that if Iran stopped the launches - US will only go after the Houthis and pro-Iran units in Syria. If Israel decides to escalate - then US will defend it but not help it attack Iran."I suspect Iran’s leadership knew most of their missiles would get shot down, but felt they had no choice but to attack in dramatic style. Neither side can benefit from all-out war, so despite some threats from Tehran to fire even more missiles I expect it would now prefer a return to its much more successful hybrid warfare strategies. Iranian forces can achieve far more by hijacking ships on the high seas, or giving Yemen’s Houthis what they need to continue disrupting global trade via the Suez Canal, than by sending missiles to be obliterated on their way to Tel Aviv."I think Israel will back down from a retaliatory strike, and still assassinate Iranian military leaders as and when they can. Iran back to using non-state actors to wage war on Israel. This strike has "merely brought Iran’s ongoing shadow offensive against Israel into the open." The US seems to be fine with that.

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Israel vows to respond to Iranian attackDespite calls from world leaders for all parties to show restraint, Israel says it will soon hit back at Iran over its unprecedented air attack this weekend. On Monday, Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said Tehran’s attack “will be met with a response.”Though the barrage of over 300 drones and missiles was largely intercepted and caused minimal damage, it marked the first-ever direct attack on Israeli soil by Iran – raising pressure for the Jewish state to retaliate.As the Israeli war cabinet considered how to respond, a government spokesperson on Monday said “Israel retains all its options.”What comes next? Iran expects Israel to hit back and is “likely prepared to absorb a degree of Israeli retaliation if it keeps things on a de-escalatory trend,” says Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group, which would probably “include Israeli attacks on Iran's assets in the region.”“But an Israeli attack on a high-value target, such as senior IRGC officers, or an Israeli attack against Iran itself (which is a major regime red-line), would likely be viewed from Iran as escalation and prompt renewed Iranian actions,” Brew adds. Israel is also calling for sanctions to be imposed on Iran's missile project.Iran’s top diplomat, Hossein Amirabdollahian, on Monday warned that if Israel launches an attack the Iranian response will be "immediate, stronger and more extensive."🦉 If Israel keeps on a ‘de-escalatory trend’ Iran may not feel the need to respond again. The U.S has made it clear it will not support further attacks on Iran by Israel. It does not want war with Iran. Calibrating a response (as if it’s a game of chess or a prize fight) will not be easy. Biden has told Bibi the smart move is to “take the win” and move on. Since when did Bibi listen to Biden though? It’s a tricky problem if you are as bellicose as Netanyahu and his far-right War Cabinet. How to land a respectably annoying blow on Iran’s nose without provoking an escalation in return. Israel got lucky with the Iron Dome and support of its ad hoc coalition allies because Iran could have targeted civilians not military. It has warned that next time will be much worse.Biden has shown himself to be weak and unable to influence Netanyahu because Bibi is an old friend and the U.S. president has an ‘ iron-clad’ commitment to Israel’s defence. That has created a moral hazard in the form of perceived impunity by the Israeli PM.

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Garry Kasparov: Coming shortly after his latest sham election, the attack gave dictatorVladimir Putina rallying cry one day after the Kremlin declared for the first time that Russia is in a “state of war” in #Ukraine.Paranoia is my birthright, as it is for anyone born in the Soviet Union. But the official Kremlin story line is already a shambles. In one of the most surveilled cities on earth, where you can be arrested in 30 seconds for whispering “no war,” the terrorists continued their attack for more than an hour and then simply drove away.The FSB, Russia’s state security service, claims to have arrested four suspects near #Ukraine, at one of the most fortified borders in the world. Or did the suspects actually drive to Russian ally Belarus, as that nation’s ambassador to Russia said? Considering the amount of materiel and preparation required to do so much damage to a venue the size of a small village, it’s odd that the terrorists would suddenly turn into bungling amateurs by carrying their Tajik passports and heading to a militarized border.Every official statement by the Kremlin and its propagandists will be a lie with a few half-truths. This is the usual reaction of the state security system of which Putin is a product. As I often say, I believe in coincidences, but I also believe in the KGB.Putin angrily dismissed U.S. Embassy warnings of March 7 and March 18 about a potential terrorist attack on a concert venue in Moscow. (How did the U.S. find out about this? Did sources in ISIS-Q or, I suspect, moles in the FSB?) Then, on March 22, Putin ordered the conscription of hundreds of thousands more Russians for a war of conquest in Ukraine.Twenty-five years ago, when then-Prime Minister Putin needed a platform for his presidential campaign, a series of terrorist attacks on the homes of Russians started the Second Chechen War. In my 2015 book, Winter is Near, I laid out the overwhelming evidence that these were false-flag terrorist attacks staged by the FSB. It's so shocking that it's hard to believe until you realize what kind of man Putin is. He is not allergic to blood, Russian or otherwise, as long as its shedding furthers his goals.Twenty-five years ago, Putin seized power by committing mass murder in Chechnya. Today, hoping to hold on to power, Putin is committing mass murder in Ukraine.

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Iran bracing for Israeli retaliation, possibly within its borders - The National News:Iran is gearing up to counter anIsraeli retaliation,possibly within its borders, sources close to Tehran toldThe Nationalon Tuesday, after Israel said it hasdecided to respondto the Iranian attack.Iranian military and political leaders have determined a specific level of Israeliresponsethat could be tolerable, even if on Iranian soil, without provoking severe retaliation from Tehran, the sources added.“Iranian expectations involve a limited attack, regarding its scope and destruction. For instance, this might include strikes on facilities that Israel says are connected to the Iranian attack,” one of the sources explained.“If it’s the case, then Iran may threaten to use its right to respond at the right time and place, and not engage immediately in a counter-retaliation that could lead to an open confrontation.“But if theIsraeli attackis more aggressive and destructive than expected, a strong Iranian response will follow. In this case, it is most likely that regional armed groups will join the Iranians.”Iran attacked Israel on Saturday in retaliation for the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, on April 1. It was Tehran's first known direct attack against its regional foe and marked the start of a new chapter in the confrontation between the two countries.“It will be hard for Tehran to accept the idea of a major Israeli retaliation after it did everything it did last Saturday to successfully send a message that the phase of patience has ended,” a second source close to Iranian diplomatic circles said.“Alternatively, Israel could decide to resort to the security and intelligence option to inflict significant damage on Iranian interests or facilities through an attack that generates a major media sensation but does not bear the clear fingerprints of the Mossad, nor does it lead to a war."US President Joe Biden, who is running for re-election in November, has been trying to preventIsrael's war in Gaza, which broke out on October 7, from spreading across the region.On Monday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the Biden administrationwould not be involved in any Israeli response.The vast majority of the drones andmissiles fired were intercepted byIsraeli and allied air defence systems in the region. It caused little damage in Israel, although a girl was reportedly wounded by shrapnel.Nevertheless, Israel’s war cabinet, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, decided on a retaliation option that is intended to be “painful” to Iran without sparking a full-blown war, according to Israeli media. An Iranian official then warned Tehran would retaliate “within seconds” against any Israeli attack.Story continues here: https://lnkd.in/etu6bXXT

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OUR GOVERNMENT SAYS “NO” – BUT ARE WE ABANDONING UKRAINE?By Robert McConnell "We are told the Speaker has promised to bring Ukraine funding to a vote as soon as the House returns (April 9), but given all the tortured dynamics of the 118th Congress, we will have to wait to see what happens. Whatever the Speaker’s intentions, there are dangerous and disruptive forces in his caucus.However, there should be no recess for supporters of Ukraine. What should happen is that every time a Member of Congress or candidate for Congress stands in front of an audience or is seen in their state or district, they should be asked to justify inaction on Ukraine funding. How could you leave town without passing Ukraine funding? How could you, while Putin challenges the United States, NATO, and Ukraine, continuing to commit war crimes against Ukraine, its people, and its heritage against the backdrop of his consistently stated objective to re-establish Kremlin domination over the entirety of the once Russian Empire? (Picket signs would also be good.)...BUT THE PROBLEM IS NOT JUST IN CONGRESS...People – innocent people – are dying while the Administration seeks to placate Ukraine supporters with “the long-range ATACMS are under consideration,” and “we are leaning toward providing.” Stop leaning and send the weapons.Weapons and support for those weapons Washington has provided Ukraine has in each case been too little and too late. Worse, there have been too many instances where what has been delivered did not work....Russia started and continues an unprovoked war against Ukraine, thousands-upon-thousands of Ukrainian civilians have and are being killed, Ukraine’s infrastructure is being savaged by Russian bombardment and not only does the Administration place restrictions on how American-supplied weapons can be used, but now urges Ukraine not to use its own, in-country made weapons to counter Russian aggression.In what world is the West Wing living?Ukraine is not engaged in a war game, it is fighting for its very existence, for the very lives of its people – and for what is indisputably in our – the United States’ – best national security interests....Putin will not stop his advances until he is stopped!Ukraine can stop Putin if it is provided the weapons and support needed to do the job."Full piece: https://lnkd.in/duXkjB8cU.S. Department of State US Congress U.S. House of Representatives #StandWithUkraine #ArmUkraineNOW #ThankYou

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Does Plant Dictator Putin already plan the next attack?Is there an earlier retaliatory campaign underway?Within the NATO, concerns are escalating over a potential attack by the Russian army. A European intelligence agency now presents a dramatic scenario. Last weekend, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (63, SPD) warned in Die WELT am SONNTAG: "We now have approximately five to eight years in which we need to catch up - both in terms of the armed forces and in industry and society." Pistorius predicts a possible Russian attack on NATO within less than a decade. However, others perceive the danger to be even closer in the future. Even within the NATO, there are varying assessments. The central question is: how quickly will Russia recover from its catastrophic losses in Ukraine?Jacek Siewiera (39), Chief of Poland's National Security Bureau, stated in early December, "NATO countries along the eastern flank should choose a timeframe of three years to prepare for a confrontation. During this time, a potential needs to be created on the eastern flank that presents a clear deterrent against aggression." This means that Poland believes that Russia will become combat-ready (and willing!) again roughly twice as fast as Germany's Defense Minister assumes.Intelligence agency: Attack already in the next winter?A European intelligence agency arrives at an even more dramatic assessment. According to this, Russia could already attempt to attack Europe in the upcoming winter of 2024/25. A person familiar with the matter stated to the media that Russia could strike at the moment when the USA appears to be "leaderless," and European states could only come to aid with delay. This means, specifically, between the possible removal of Joe Biden in early November 2024 and the swearing-in of his potential successor in January 2025. According to the intelligence officer, the Russians hope that former President Donald Trump will reclaim the White House. Under him, the intelligence officer claims, "anything can happen." Trump had recently expressed opposition to further aid for Ukraine. Before and during his tenure, he was considered pro-Putin. The Kremlin is said to have also attempted to influence the US election in favor of Trump.Lithuania: Timing of a Russian attack "irrelevant"Lithuania's Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas (60), who met with Boris Pistorius on the occasion of the deployment of German soldiers in Lithuania, summed it up in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Monday: "Currently, Russia's army is tied up in Ukraine. Once they have succeeded there, they can focus on Europe." Consequently, if we ensure a military defeat for Russia in Ukraine, the risk of an attack on NATO decreases significantly!Quelle: US Medien, Welt am Sonntag, Bild Zeitung.

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Is the CIA Backing Rebels Intrusions into Russia Leading to Eventual Insurgency?The CIA and certain other US agencies are dedicated to supporting opposition movements in Russia promoting US style "democracy". This is far from new. Even the Agency's Deputy Director is encouraging essentially almost any information contributions from those especially disaffected by the war in Ukraine to come forth with any insider information that would undermine the Kremlin. It is essentially a "full court press" against the Russian government with hundreds of millions in cash and assets to essentially pull it down to get rid of President Putin or greatly weaken Russia no matter what official Washington says?One way to do so is to try to (clandestine) support independent weaponized rebels who it can be called its own little green men learning from tactics Moscow used in a bloodless coup of its own to take Crimea. Denying any military hand or intelligence agency support and it and Kiev saying or indicating they had nothing to do with such attacks by Russian citizens on their own country. Thereby looking like they are following so-called orders of President Biden not to attack main Russia. This approach of US/Ukraine's little green men, if such is the case has serious risks though I do not discount its effective disruptive effects in some locales and even Russia as a whole on the short run. The risks are though that the overall Russian people will dig in more to do whatever it takes to militarily advance in Ukraine and be even more punitive. And to step up hybrid warfare and other assets even domestically in NATO countries to reinforce division. Germany's intelligence agency worries about even the stepped up information war by Russia impacting certain mainstream German youth political wings and domestic extremists. It should not be forgotten how the KGB, Putin was part of seemingly had ties to horrible terrorist groups like the Baeder Meinhof in Germany and Red Brigade in Italy. Stepped up incursions by so-called private operators including their use of drones in sabotage efforts on the Kremlin (?) including their support by omission or commission by the US and Kiev governments might prove awful for NATO?As I keep mentioning, Moscow has made enough of a statement on the consequences of NATO and Ukraine not taking into account its security interests and cultural ones as well. It thus should have its forces leave Ukraine, thereby preventing escalation to dangerous levels to humanity and further degradation of its military and parts of its economy The US money printing machinery can for a very long time support Kiev and all sorts of internal incursions and disruptions beyond belief including guerilla warfare. All of this just makes Putin and Russia more dangerous.I only see the weapons industry in NATO and a lesser degree Russia being the beneficiaries.

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30 Jul 12:50: BBC News: UPDATED: Russia’s War on Ukraine: Putin says Russia does not reject peace talks: 🌎💙🦸🏻♂️🌍🦸🏼♀️💛🌏 v 👺War Criminals🐀 Innocents TerroristsBy Marita Moloney: BBC News: 3 hours ago EuropeRussian President Vladimir Putin has said he does not reject the idea of peace talks on Ukraine.Speaking after meeting African leaders in St Petersburg, he said African and Chinese initiatives could serve as a basis for finding peace.But Mr Putin also said there could be no ceasefire while the Ukrainian army was on the offensive.In the hours after he spoke, Russia said a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow had damaged two office blocks.Flights were briefly suspended from Vnukovo Airport, south-west of the city centre, and one person was injured, Russia's state news agency Tass reported.Ukraine has not commented on the drone incident:Me (I repeat my earlier views of today): ‘Or put another way, what’s the lying little +*^% up to now? 👺🤡🤥🤮 Russia is also on the attack in multiple locations according to daily ISW military status reports. Ukraine leadership don’t need this advice because no one understands Putin’s malevolence better that them, but don’t ever trust him on ANYTHING as far as you can throw him. BUT better news is that his likely mention of ‘peace negotiations’ suggests he’s now aware he is losing and is in trouble. Carry on as you are, Ukraine.Western world: Show more courage and rather than under-equip Ukraine on weapons, up the game to include F-16 training (none in place yet) and F-16 delivery; defend the Black Sea international waters; add further air defences for port and other Russian focus attack UKrainian areas; provide long distance missile systems (the single most important game-changer for Ukraine); help take down the Kerch Bridge forever; and for goodness sake ALLOW Ukraine to use Western weapons to counterattack Russian territory, instead of allowing Russia to simply blow Ukraine to pieces on a daily basis. PUTIN ONLY RESPECTS STRENGTH. STOP puss*FOOTING AROUND, PLEASE’:

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12 Aug 07:05: cnn.com: Russia's 'August curse' sees war come home: 👺🤡 💥 Yikes! 💥 🤥🤮Analysis by Matthew Chance, CNN: Updated 06:52 BST, Sat Aug 12, 2023:Moscow (CNN) - In years past, the month of August was often greeted in Russia with a degree of caution, even alarm. Russians spoke in whispered tones of their "August curse" to explain the unusually high number of deadly accidents, terrorist attacks, or outbreaks of war.For a long time now that curse seemed to have been lifted and almost forgotten, reducing the month to just another hot summer interlude.But this year, it appears to be back with a vengeance.For a start, Russians are witnessing a massive upsurge in Ukrainian attacks that have brought the Kremlin's war home, making Moscow pay a price and giving ordinary Russians a taste of the horrific violence Ukraine has suffered since last February.In the Black Sea, Russia's military and commercial fleets have come under attack from Ukrainian naval drones this month, threatening Russian supply and trade routes.And every day in August so far has seen the news media carry reports of small- scale but incessant Ukrainian drone attacks targeting official buildings, military installations, or commercial and residential premises.Most are shot out of the sky, according to officials, by bolstered air defenses. But enough get through to give Russians pause:

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