Welcome to the NASCAR Sub-Plot 600 at Charlotte.
The script was already crowded, due to several storylines heading into the second half of the regular season. The biggest involves Kyle Larson, of course, and his attempt at the Indy-Charlotte double, assuming the weather agrees in Indianapolis.
But now we have the aftermath of North Wilkesboro, where the Mississippi Mauler, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., ignited the racing world with his handling of the Kyle Busch situation last Sunday night.
Toss in Kyle's team owner, Richard Childress, who suggested he's ready to get down and dirty with Ricky if he doesn't cool his jets pretty soon. Birth certificate be damned, RC warns.
But here, thankfully, we deal with cold, hard numbers, which have no emotion. But boy, oh boy, can they elicit some. Let's go ...
NASCAR odds this week
+450: Kyle Larson
+600: Denny Hamlin
+800: Tyler Reddick
+900: Ryan Blaney
+1000: Martin Truex Jr., William Byron
+1100: Chase Elliott
+1200: Brad Keselowski
+1300: Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell
+1600: Ty Gibbs
+1750: Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain
+2000: Joey Logano
+2500: Alex Bowman
+3000: Bubba Wallace
+5000: Noah Gragson
+10000: Josh Berry, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, Todd Gilliland
+15000: Michael McDowell, Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
+25000: Carson Hocevar, Ryan Preece, Austin Cindric
+50000: Zane Smith, Jimmie Johnson, Shane van Gisbergen, John Hunter Nemechek, Core LaJoie, Justin Haley, Harrison Burton
+100000: Daniel Hemric
+250000: JJ Yeley, Kaz Grala
Best bets for the Coca-Cola 600
Ryan: I didn't hallucinate, right? Ford HAS won the last two races and if not for a quarter inch of Larson's bumper, it would be three? And Blaney won this race last year, right? Yet Ford at +240 has the longest odds in the winning manufacturer category. I'll roll with a blue oval on Sunday. Spoiler alert.
Ken: I'll drill down a little farther and find a slight gusher. The two favored teams are a Toyota (Gibbs at +200) and a Chevy (Hendrick +220). Next is another Toyota team (23XI) but also a Ford, both at +650. The Ford team is RFK Racing, and I wouldn't be against either Brad Keselowski or Chris Buescher. In fact, I'd bet on them.
Denny Hamlin, free money for a top 10?
Ryan: This category kind of sucks. As of Wednesday afternoon, there were 14 drivers with minus odds to finish in the top 10 (can someone from the math department explain this one to me?) But, Mr. Top 10 was at +220 and of course I'm referring to Gragson. I'll roll with the fan-vote winner.
Ken: Three top-10s in the last four co*ke 600s, with the outlier courtesy of a wreck. Also, one-fourth of his career Cup wins have come at Charlotte. And he's +600 for a top 10? That's right, I'm taking Austin Dillon. And yes, one-fourth of his career win total is: 1.
Kyle Busch drives angrily to the top five?
Ryan: Busch can only handle this Stenhouse Jr. situation in one of two ways: Let it linger and ruin races, or use it as motivation. Rowdy has always driven best while driving angry. He has the best average finish at Charlotte over the last three 600s (3.7) with two top-five finishes in that span and yet he's +275, 12th on the odds board for a top five. Give me Busch, sore jaw or not.
Ken: I know he's at -125 for this, which means a $10 wager nets you just $8. But free money is free money, and Denny Hamlin is free money for the top five.
Fading on Hendrick Motorsports drivers? At Charlotte? Are ya nuts?
Ryan: Considering Hendrick Motorsports' history of speed in Charlotte, I may regret this one, but counting the All-Star Race, Byron has finished 19th or worse in three of the last four races. Momentum in this Gen-7 era is everything. I think he'll get it back sometime before the playoffs, I'm just not betting that it's going to be Sunday despite his runner-up finish last year.
Ken: I'd avoid Kyle Larson for a few reasons, including the fact things could go haywire and he could miss the start of the race. Best-case scenario has Indy getting rained out completely and moved to Monday, which gets Kyle to Charlotte in plenty of time and immediately has me rethinking the fade.
Just for fun, who ya got in the Indy 500?
Ryan: The Larson story is incredible and he's currently fourth on the board at +700. But it's hard to ignore that Penske power, so I'll pick my guy Josef Newgarden to repeat. And that is also a bit of foreshadowing.
Ken: It's been a long time since you would consider putting some money on the No. 14 A.J. Foyt car, but give me Santino Ferrucci at +1800.
Alright already, who's winning this thing?
Ryan: As I said, foreshadowing. Ryan Blaney gets his first win of the season right where he got his first one last year.
Ken: A lot has gone wrong recently for Chris Buescher, and a whole lot can go wrong in 600 miles, but I'm taking the No. 17.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds, picks, predictions, bets for Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte
