- Population in the 16-county Nashville region grew to 2.1 million people this year.
- The number of Davidson County residents dipped 1.6% last year while its suburbs grew up to 3%.
- Growth to top 2.5 million by 2040, regional leaders believe.
Ji You Whang and her Italian greyhound, Pepper, made a 7,000-mile trek across the world for a teaching position at Vanderbilt University.
The duo moved to Tennessee from South Korea last year, but rather than settling in the big city of Nashville, they made their home 20 miles south of downtown, just over the county line in Nolensville.
"I was born and raised in Seoul, Korea, which is very crowded," Whang said. "Downtown Nashville is very crowded, but if you drive a little bit more, you see a lot of green spaces and it is very peaceful."
An Asian studies lecturer at Vanderbilt, Whang bought a house in Williamson County last year and says she just might stay for the long term.
"I really like the job at Vanderbilt, and I love Nashville," Whang said. "There are so many dog parks here that are free. In Korea, they are not free. I think my dog is happy to be here, too. I think I will stay here as long as I can."
Nashville region growing, city shrinking
The 16-county region that encompasses Nashville and its suburban sprawl has held the title of one of America's fastest-growing metropolitan regions for a decade.
This year, the region's total population topped 2 million people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Regional leaders expect that to expand beyond 2.5 million people by 2040.
But Davidson County − the beating heart of the growth engine − is one of only a few Tennessee counties that is shrinking.
Like Whang, most new regional residents are finding homes in surrounding counties. Williamson County, where Whang settled, added 2.5% new residents in 2021.
In contrast, Davidson's population decreased by 1.6% in the 12 months ending July 1, 2021, according to Census data.
But housing construction is expected to boom, with four new neighborhoods planned on the East Bank of downtown's riverfront.
Ralph Schulz, president of the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, said continued tourism and new-resident demand is crucial to the region's economic future.
"There are 70,000 job openings in the region and only 31,000 people unemployed," Schulz said. "We need that population growth to continue to expand that opportunity."
Meanwhile in 2021, Maury and Montgomery counties each saw a 3% population jump; Rutherford County's population increased 2.6%; Wilson County added 2.2% to its population total; and Dickson County grew by 1.6%.
Nashville's suburban sprawl
Ryan and Krissie Dowd moved their family to the Hendersonville area from Chicago after his work went remote in 2020.
"It was either here or Colorado, which is really pretty, but Nashville was warmer," Ryan Dowd said. "Our daughter is at Belmont, and we have family in the area, so Nashville made sense."
Krissie Dowd said that in addition to a warmer climate and proximity to relatives, the family is enjoying what the city of Nashville offers them.
"We go to downtown Nashville at least once a week because it's so easy to get there," she said. "Don't laugh at us, but we really like Broadway. We love live music, and you can hear it any day of the week. There's nowhere else like that."
Sumner County, where Hendersonville is the largest city, grew 1.7% to just over 200,000 residents in 2021.
Davidson County's population grew 14.2% from 2010 to 2020, and its suburbs grew even faster as housing prices jumped with increased demand.
Rapid growth is reshaping political districts and fueling statewide plans to expand roads, airports and housing density.
Almost 47 new residents a day last year
The population surge peaked from mid-2016 to mid-2017, when an average of 100 new residents per day called the greater Nashville region home.
Since then, the rate of growth has progressively declined, even though it remains high compared to the national average.
By July 2018, an average of 83 people a day had become Nashville-area residents in the prior 12 months, according to the Census. That dipped to 76 new residents per day from 2019 to 2020.
Last year, the Census counted more than 17,000 new regional residents — averaging almost 47 newcomers per day.
"Davidson County lost 11,000 residents last year," Schulz said. "The rest of the counties made that up and gave the area net growth of 30,000 people."
For the Dowds, it was the weather, the lower interest rates and home values that lured them here from Chicago last year.
"Chicago winters are just brutal," Ryan Dowd said. "So, we already had one foot out the door. It seemed like as good time as any, so we said: 'Let's go!'"
He said it took them about 2-and-a-half months from the time they decided to move to filling up the moving truck. The couple made one home-scouting trip before the move.
"We wanted to be as close to Nashville as possible and we had to have a studio for Ryan's job," Krissie Dowd said. "Everything we looked at in Nashville had lots of zeroes at the end. We fell in love with Hendersonville. We found the sweet spot of not being so close that it was cost-prohibitive, but not so far that our daughter's commute to Belmont would be atrocious."
Sandy Mazza can be reached via email at smazza@tennessean.com, by calling 615-726-5962, or on Twitter @SandyMazza.
