Tennessee’s population is expected to reach 7.94 million by 2040, according to new projections from the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Haslam College of Business. By 2040, the state’s population of adults 65 and over is expected to increase by 25 percent compared to the 2022 census estimate (the most recent available), with a 36 percent spike among those aged 75-84 and a 72 percent surge in individuals aged 85 and above.
“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” says Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics, Joe Johnson Faculty Fellow and co-author of the new projections. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”
A projected overall population increase of nearly 900,000 people will increase the number of Tennessee residents by 12.6% percent from the 2022 population of 7.05 million.
Figure 1. Tennessee Estimated and Projected Population, 1910-2070
A Growing Group of Older Adults
By 2040, almost 20 percent of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. This projection is up from 17.3 percent in 2022 and represents a growth of 306,000 people.
Tennessee’s oldest residents will be the fastest-growing subset of the senior population. In 2022, there were more than 119,000 Tennesseans over the age of 85, and approximately 491,000 Tennesseans aged at least 75 years old. By 2040, those numbers are expected to increase to nearly 205,000 individuals aged 85 and older and almost 712,000 people who are at least 75 years of age.
“A growing senior population doesn’t just have implications for the health care system,” says Harris. “The full array of senior-oriented services — such as housing, transportation and other types of personal care — will also be in higher demand over the coming years.”
Youth and working-age populations in Tennessee are projected to grow as well, but at a slower pace than the state’s population of older adults.
The share of the state’s population under 20 is expected to grow slightly, from 24.2 percent in 2022 to 24.4 percent in 2040, translating to an increase of more than 237,000 people.
During the same period, the share of the state’s 25-54 population is projected to grow by 296,000 people, or 10.8 percent, which is slightly slower than the state as a whole. This specific growth will result in the share of the state’s prime-age workers dipping from 38.9 percent of the population in 2022 to a projected 38.3 percent in 2040.
Expanding Racial and Ethnic Population Composition
Roughly 60 percent of the state’s population growth by 2040 is projected to be among Hispanic individuals, Black or African American individuals or people of other races or more than one race. This projection highlights the degree to which Tennessee’s population will continue to become more racially and ethnically diverse.
The largest increase will be among Hispanic Tennesseans, whose numbers are expected to grow from 450,000 in 2022 to 754,000 in 2040. By 2040, the Hispanic population is projected to make up 9.5 percent of Tennessee residents, up from 6.4 percent in 2022.
By comparison, the white population in Tennessee is expected to have the largest growth in absolute terms (an increase of 354,000), but the share of the state’s population that is white is projected to decrease from 72.9 percent in 2022 to 69.2 percent in 2040.
Factors Affecting Future Projections
Any population projection is subject to uncertainty. The Boyd Center has identified four elements that could result in changes to the state’s population totals and characteristics in future projections: a changing base population as annual revisions from 2020 census data are incorporated, whether an elevated number of deaths continues to occur in the state, revisions that may affect fertility rates and shifting net migration patterns. Read more about these four factors in the report’s population projection methodology notes.
About the Boyd Center
The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research is a nonpartisan research hub within the Haslam College of Business at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Its faculty engages in important academic research across a wide range of public policy projects, including education, health, e-commerce, taxation, welfare and labor. It also analyzes and disseminates data on the demography and economy of Tennessee in conjunction with the Tennessee State Data Center.
The center produces and updates the 50-year projections every two years based on census data. The numbers help cities and counties, governmental agencies and legislative bodies prepare for the future. An interactive dashboard is available as well, where visitors can sort data by county, region or state, as well as by demographics and year.
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CONTACT:
Erin Hatfield (865-974-6086, ehatfie1@utk.edu)
